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Progress Software Corporation
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ
Price history for PRGS is unavailable — the core-api history endpoint is offline or returned an unexpected payload.
Estimated fair value
35.77
Range
24.97–57.98
Price vs value
19% above
Model support
Value
19% above fair value
confidence low
Estimate momentum
tracking
trends after ~30 days
Next catalyst
PRGS earnings · 27d
earnings
Volatility
normal
regime
1M forecast
withheld
Value tells you the size of the gap; the other cells tell you what could close it — and when. A cheap stock without a catalyst can stay cheap.
Forecast withheld
stale data
No intelligence items published yet.
Price trades 19% above the fair-value estimate — PRGS screens as moderately overvalued. The 4 models disagree widely (dispersion 35.4%) — treat the range, not the midpoint, as the answer. A valuation gap is not a timing signal and currently has zero ranking weight.
Forward earnings lens
7.2x FY2026 P/E
EPS 6.16+271.0%3 analysts
Shown as context, not blended into fair value, while genuine point-in-time forward-multiple history accumulates.
Where estimates sit vs price 44.05
Not meaningful for this company type: excess returns model (financials), path-to-profitability (scenario), dividend discount model, p/ocf vs peer reits (ffo proxy).
Cheap or expensive — depending on the yardstick
Entry threshold
below 28.62(fair value 35.77 − 20%)
price is 54% above your threshold
A valuation threshold, not a timing signal — a cheap stock can keep falling. Alerts wire in when the notification substrate lands.
Estimate revisions: tracking since 2026-08-14 — trends appear after ~30 days of snapshots.
Company profile at a glance
Bars are scaled to documented anchors (e.g. 35% operating margin = full bar), not ranked against other companies. Each row stands on its own — there is no hidden total score.
Financials at a glance· latest reported year · 16y of statements
Revenue
$978M
+14% per year over the period
Operating margin
15.7%
5y average 18.4%
Free cash flow
$229M
23.5% of revenue
Net debt / EBITDA
8.2×
ROE
15.3%
net income ÷ equity
ROIC
6.8%
after-tax operating profit ÷ capital
Dividends paid
$786000
latest year
Buybacks
$105M
share repurchases, latest year
Where the revenue dollar went · FY2025
What the current price is assuming
No revenue-growth or margin assumption inside the model's sanity bounds justifies today's price of 44.05. Either the market expects something far outside historical experience, or the price has detached from fundamentals.
What the DCF is made of — present value by year (base case)
Which growth × margin combinations justify today's price
| margin ↓ / growth → | -5% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | ||||||||||
| 55% |
Price vs fair value through time
— price · — fair value (band = bear–bull). Vintages accumulating since 2026-08-14 (recorded at compute time; no historical backfill).
Fair value if assumptions move — discount rate × terminal growth
| discount rate ↓ | g 0% | g 1% | g 2% | g 3% | g 4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | 9.9 | 10.06 | 10.27 | 10.58 | 11.06 |
| 8.1% | 7.06 | 7 | 6.93 | 6.82 | 6.66 |
| 8.6% | 4.57 |
Terminal value is 53% of the total. Solid years are consensus-anchored; lighter years fade to the stable rate.
| 50% |
|---|
| 45% |
|---|
| 40% |
|---|
| 35% |
|---|
| 30% |
|---|
| 25% |
|---|
| 20% |
|---|
| 15% |
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| 10% |
|---|
| 5% |
|---|
| 0% |
|---|
Sage cells are the assumption pairs that make the model value equal today's price (±2%) — 2 of 100 combinations work. If they all sit at heroic growth or margins, the price is demanding.
| 4.36 |
| 4.09 |
| 3.73 |
| 3.2 |
| 9.1% | 2.37 | 2.06 | 1.66 | 1.14 | 0.4 |
|---|
| 9.6% | 0.42 | 0.04 | — | — | — |
|---|
| 10.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
|---|
| 10.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
|---|
Cells compare each implied fair value with the current price 44.05: green above it, burgundy below. Outlined cell = base case.